Santa Fe, NM | (714) 794-5195 | info@deepfutureanalytics.com
Reinventing Retail Lending Through Advanced Analytical Models
Best in Class Loan Forecasting Solutions
With the advent of new regulatory credit risk requirements, the nation's largest financial institutions are leveraging their resources to go beyond "checking a box," and are gaining market share by deploying new, impactful credit risk modeling strategies. At Deep Future Analytics (DFA), we feel smaller community banks and credit unions shouldn't have to lose opportunities because their overwhelmed, overworked loan managers lack the resources and time to best utilize loan modeling tools. We've made it our mission to guide our partners in using our best in class Loan Portfolio Strategy Software to optimize loan pricing, collections, risk, and more. Take a look at what sets up apart…
A Reliable Team
We understand credit unions, DFA is a CUSO founded by Dr. Joseph Breeden and Nuvision FCU. Dr. Breeden, the inventor of vintage modeling, has written over 50 books and trade publications on credit risk modeling. He has created numerous financial models in his 25+ years, including the Mexican Peso Crisis, Asian Economic Crisis, 2001 Global Recession, Hong Kong SARS Recession, US Mortgage Crisis, and the Global Financial Crisis.
A Proven Process
Credit Union's need a model they can trust. DFA created leading stress testing applications before CCAR and DFAST existed. These models were CECL compliant before FASB saw a need. The models are battle tested and proven through multiple business environments, and all clients can run COVID-19 Stress scenarios from our proprietary economic scenario generator, ScenarioAI.
An Actionable Report
We understand data can be overwhelming so we start from a high level and provide you with simple drill downs. Examine risk exposure by product and by state, then drill down to Open Accounts and Charge-Offs. Take it a step further and examine mild, adverse and severe scenarios. Finally, understand the impact on your P&L, including: Outstanding Loans & Leases, Loan-to-Share, Net Income, and more.
Proud Partner of ProfitStars®, a division of Jack Henry & Associates®
ProfitStars chose Deep Future to serve their client's CECL and Loan Modeling needs. Together we provide a strong solution with consultative & educational guidance.
Video: Model Alternatives for CECL
DFA conducted a study of eight different CECL models using publicly available data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Viewers will get a better understanding of Modeling, CECL requirements, and how to choose a model that is the right for your institution.
Helping our Clients Succeed!
At DFA we are Reinventing Lending and helping our clients Succeed in many ways. Here is what they're telling us:
"We've gained peace of mind now that we manage our loans with the most accurate information achievable""We're making confident decisions since maximizing internal/external loan model inputs""Stress testing all the economic scenarios helps us prepare for the next recession""Knowing the REAL value of our Participations brings the greatest diversification benefit and offer price""We're making smarter pricing and risk decisions by introducing the best decisioning intelligence possible"
Recent Publications
All publications below were authored by DFA's own, Dr. Joseph Breeden
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Reserves: All Loans vs. RE Loans
CECL (Current Expected Credit Loss) is the new accounting standard for estimating loss reserves on loan portfolios. The CECL guidance provides a great amount of flexibility in which models are used and a range of other choices that may impact the calculations. This book provides details of a study on how to apply CECL to US mortgage data. It seeks to disclose as many modeling details, results, and validation tests as possible so as to provide a reference for comparison and best practices. Because CECL is so similar to IFRS 9 Stage 2, this can also serve as a benchmark for implementing the new international account standards. The book is organized into three parts. Part I: Study Summary provides an overview of CECL, the design of the mortgage study, and the key comparative results across the models tested. Part II: Model Details provides in-depth discussions of how the models were designed and estimated, the coefficients, and the validation. Part III: Background provides additional conceptual material. Chapters 11 and 12 may be particularly useful to those new to modeling, and Chapter 13 puts CECL modeling in the context of lending analytics overall.
- Date // May 2018
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Vintage Performance
Building on the solid foundation of the previous bestselling first impression, this extended updated impression walks through the various issues of retail lending and develops approaches to address the interaction between economic cycles and retail lending. The complexity of time is extensively explored: vintages, current time and maturity. Reinventing Retail Lending Analytics, Second Impression covers complex issues such as scenario based forecasting, stress testing, volatility analysis, economic capital and portfolio optimisation, credit scoring and last, but not least, model risk.
The book ends by providing examples of the application of nonlinear decomposition. These examples will provide you with rich data sets for exploring portfolio dynamics and improving portfolio management using nonlinear decomposition techniques.- Date // March 2019
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Preface
The new loan loss accounting rules for CECL and IFRS 9 require thousands of organizations to learn about modeling. Likewise, accountants and others in finance are now required to learn about statistical modeling concepts. This book is intended to define terms in a manner consistent with decades of academic literature on statistical modeling and hopefully reduce some of the noise and confusion just around definition of terms. It may also serve as a useful guide to analysts new to the field tasked with IFRS 9 compliance, the international loss accounting rules, and credit risk modeling in general.
Each chapter of this book is a term that one might encounter when discussing creating lifetime loss forecasting models for CECL or IFRS 9. Not every term is a model, and some models listed are being mentioned only to explain why they are not likely to be used for loss forecasting. The CECL guidelines and subsequent FAQs have given examples of modeling techniques. Some people new to loss forecasting have assumed that those are all the available or applicable methods. This book is meant in
part to dispel that misconception.
The definitions and descriptions provided here are meant to provide an intuitive understanding across a range of modeling techniques. Mathematical derivations are kept to a minimum. The references listed will provide all the necessary details for an eager analyst.- Date // June 2018
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Which CECL model should we use? 23 Jul 2018
If you're a top 20 bank, this will almost certainly be a modified version of your CCAR model. For everyone else, we tested the alternatives.
This is an expansion of our previously released studies. In a sincere effort to assist small lenders in implementing CECL, several "spreadsheet methods" have been proposed.- Date // Nov. 2018
Credit Union Owned, World-Renowned Loan Modeling Team
NuVision Credit Union combined forces with the one of the top Credit Risk Research Groups in world to form Deep Future Analytics (DFA.) Since then, Deep Future Analytics had created a Best In Class loan modeling software tool with all-in-one functionality for all of your major loan modeling needs.
