Loan Participations, CECL, Stress Testing, Loan Modeling for Banks and Credit Unions

Santa Fe, NM  |   (505) 670-7670  |  info@deepfutureanalytics.com

FEBRUARY 14, 2020

STRESS TESTING FOR PANDEMICS: LESSONS FROM SARS

PRESENTED BY DR. JOSEPH BREEDEN

ABOUT THE PRESENTER

Dr. Breeden literally wrote the book on CECL in addition to the over 50 other books and trade publications in his name. He has created numerous financial models in his 25+ years, including the Mexican Peso Crisis, Asian Economic Crisis, 2001 Global Recession, Hong Kong SARS Recession, US Mortgage Crisis, and the Global Financial Crisis.

WEBINAR OVERVIEW

Given the unfortunate global headlines about coronavirus, managers are starting to ask about stress testing the financial impacts of possible pandemics. For some, that is dusting off old plans. For others, it is devising new plans. For Dr. Breeden, it is reliving the past.

Dr. Breeden was doing real-time portfolio forecasting for a major lender in Hong Kong during and after the 2002-2003 SARS recession. Going beyond the excerpts in his book (Reinventing Retail Lending Analytics), Dr. Breeden will present his insights from the previous experience and offer advice about how to stress test pandemics. This will specifically cover how to make models that are robust to changing headlines and what to watch for when the stress test becomes the baseline forecast.

This webinar was a joint presentation of Prescient Models LLC, Deep Future Analytics LLC, and Model Risk Managers’ International Association (MRMIA)

KEY TAKEAWAYS

◆ Insights From Modeling During Previous Pandemics
◆ Best Practices for Stress Testing During Pandemics
◆ How to make models that are robust to changing headlines
◆ What to watch for when the stress test becomes the baseline forecast

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