Dr. Breeden literally wrote the book on CECL in addition to the over 50 other books and trade publications in his name. He has created numerous financial models in his 25+ years, including the Mexican Peso Crisis, Asian Economic Crisis, 2001 Global Recession, Hong Kong SARS Recession, US Mortgage Crisis, and the Global Financial Crisis.
The government lifeline won’t continue indefinitely. What will happen when it does end? Many FI’s have not seen an increase in losses yet because of unemployment benefits, government assistance programs, and loan forbearance. As these begin to diminish and eventually end, what losses will we see?
When the assistance programs end, our loss forecasts should start being correct given the economic conditions at that time. We hope many of the defaults from unemployment during the assistance period don't appear later. This transition and the downstream affects are key drivers of current forecasts.
Forecasting models are currently predicting loan losses that are not happening because of the most aggressive government assistance and loan forbearance programs in recent history. ‘What comes after?’
We will review the economic drivers of high loss forecasts and other indicators of where government assistance is altering consumer cash flow and behavior. With these in hand, we develop some intuitive methods for computing overlays and arriving at post-assistance projections of future losses.
We will also open the session to in depth Q&A on any related topics as we all work through the pandemic impacts together.