About the Presenter

Dr. Breeden literally wrote the book on CECL in addition to the over 50 other books and trade publications in his name. He has created numerous financial models in his 25+ years, including the Mexican Peso Crisis, Asian Economic Crisis, 2001 Global Recession, Hong Kong SARS Recession, US Mortgage Crisis, and the Global Financial Crisis.


Given the unfortunate global headlines about coronavirus, managers are starting to ask about stress testing the financial impacts of possible pandemics. For some, that is dusting off old plans. For others, it is devising new plans. For Dr. Breeden, it is reliving the past.

Dr. Breeden was doing real-time portfolio forecasting for a major lender in Hong Kong during and after the 2002-2003 SARS recession. Going beyond the excerpts in his book (Reinventing Retail Lending Analytics), Dr. Breeden will present his insights from the previous experience and offer advice about how to stress test pandemics. This will specifically cover how to make models that are robust to changing headlines and what to watch for when the stress test becomes the baseline forecast.

This webinar was a joint presentation of Prescient Models LLC, Deep Future Analytics LLC, and Model Risk Managers’ International Association (MRMIA)


◆ Insights From Modeling During Previous Pandemics
◆ Best Practices for Stress Testing During Pandemics
◆ How to make models that are robust to changing headlines
◆ What to watch for when the stress test becomes the baseline forecast

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  • FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE (2020-01-11)

    Minnesota Credit Union Network and
    Deep Future Analytics
    Announce Their Partnership

    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: 11 January 2020

    Minnesota Credit Union Network and Deep Future Analytics Announce Their Partnership

    11 January 2020

    St. Paul, MN (January 11, 2020) – Minnesota Credit Union Network (MnCUN) and Deep Future Analytics (DFA) announced their partnership today. MnCUN will make available DFA’s Prescient Manager™ software to its membership. Prescient Manager™ is an easy-to-use, web-based credit risk forecasting and stress testing solution for credit unions and community banks. The software’s functionality includes:
    • Accurate, scenario-based, account-level FAS 5 ALLL and CECL forecasts including discounted cash flow functionality.
    • New loan pricing optimization leveraging the same cash flow model as for CECL.
    • Scenario-based loan valuations for purchases and sales of loan participations.

    Joseph Breeden, founder and CEO of Deep Future Analytics said, “We are excited to be partnering with MnCUN. We share a common vision that our accurate, scenario-based, account level cash flow models can create value across many functions in the FI. These solutions are integrated and coordinated in a way that a collection of independent models cannot be. MnCUN will be a great partner for bringing this capability to Minnesota credit unions.”

    “Deep Future Analytics will help best position Minnesota credit unions to manage and anticipate risk. The all-in-one software calculates the necessary lifetime loss forecasts for CECL, but also provides accurate and actionable information for portfolio management, account management, and loan pricing,” said John Ferstl, Chief Operations Officer for MnCUN.

    Deep Future Analytics is a joint operational venture of Prescient Models, LLC and Nuvision CUSO Holdings, LLC, a CUSO operated by Nuvision FCU. Dr. Joe Breeden, founder of Prescient Models, brings more than 20 years of experience leading financial institutions through predictive financial modeling, allowing clients to achieve a real understanding of portfolio dynamics for retail lending. Nuvision FCU was founded nearly a century ago as the credit union of Douglas Aircraft, its values were forged in the factories and plants that made the region prosper. Now with assets well-over $2B, Nuvision is a multi-state Credit Union, with branches in Southern California, Arizona, Wyoming, Alaska and Washington.

    About the Minnesota Credit Union Network

    The Minnesota Credit Union Network is the statewide trade association that works to ensure the success, growth and vitality of Minnesota credit unions. With approximately $25 billion in assets, Minnesota credit unions are local, trusted financial cooperatives that serve more than 1.8 million members at nearly 400 branch locations around the state. As not-for-profit institutions, credit unions give back to the communities they serve. For more information, visit www.mncun.org.


    Media Contact:
    Charles Hoy, Director of Business Development
    Deep Future Analytics LLC
    (505) 690-7195

  • Prepare for COVID-19

    View last month's webinar:
    Stress Testing for Pandemics

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