Dr. Joe Breeden, COO and Chief Scientist at Deep Future Analytics, has been the nation’s preeminent modeling practitioner for more than 20 years. He has created models through the 1995 Mexican Peso Crisis, the 1997 Asian Economic Crisis, the 2001 Global Recession, the 2003 Hong Kong SARS Recession, and the 2007-2009 US Mortgage Crisis and Global Financial Crisis.
These crises have provided Dr. Breeden with a rare perspective on crisis management and the analytics needs of executives for strategic decision-making. You have the opportunity to learn more about the unique insights offered through Age-Period-Cohort modeling, and many other modeling functions, with whitepapers, books, and videos from Deep Future Analytics.
Are we in the Worst Point in the Credit Cycle?How Should You Respond?
WHY do the worst loans get booked right before the worst economic conditions?
WHERE are we in the credit and economic cycles?
WHAT immediate actions can we take to prepare?
We look forward to seeing you at our upcoming events!
Minneapolis, MN. June 9-12, 2019
DFA's Dr. Joseph Breeden will be presenting at the Analytics and Financial Innovation(AXFI) Conference later this year.
Disney Yacht & Beach Club. April 20-23, 2020
Thank you for attending our Presentation in 2019, and we're looking forward to seeing you in 2020!
Thank you for attending our Presentation in 2019
We're looking forward to seeing you in 2020!
All publications below were authored by DFA's own, Dr. Joseph Breeden
CECL (Current Expected Credit Loss) is the new accounting standard for estimating loss reserves on loan portfolios. The CECL guidance provides a great amount of flexibility in which models are used and a range of other choices that may impact the calculations. This book provides details of a study on how to apply CECL to US mortgage data. It seeks to disclose as many modeling details, results, and validation tests as possible so as to provide a reference for comparison and best practices. Because CECL is so similar to IFRS 9 Stage 2, this can also serve as a benchmark for implementing the new international account standards. The book is organized into three parts. Part I: Study Summary provides an overview of CECL, the design of the mortgage study, and the key comparative results across the models tested. Part II: Model Details provides in-depth discussions of how the models were designed and estimated, the coefficients, and the validation. Part III: Background provides additional conceptual material. Chapters 11 and 12 may be particularly useful to those new to modeling, and Chapter 13 puts CECL modeling in the context of lending analytics overall.
Building on the solid foundation of the previous bestselling first impression, this extended updated impression walks through the various issues of retail lending and develops approaches to address the interaction between economic cycles and retail lending. The complexity of time is extensively explored: vintages, current time and maturity. Reinventing Retail Lending Analytics, Second Impression covers complex issues such as scenario based forecasting, stress testing, volatility analysis, economic capital and portfolio optimisation, credit scoring and last, but not least, model risk.
The book ends by providing examples of the application of nonlinear decomposition. These examples will provide you with rich data sets for exploring portfolio dynamics and improving portfolio management using nonlinear decomposition techniques.
The new loan loss accounting rules for CECL and IFRS 9 require thousands of organizations to learn about modeling. Likewise, accountants and others in finance are now required to learn about statistical modeling concepts. This book is intended to define terms in a manner consistent with decades of academic literature on statistical modeling and hopefully reduce some of the noise and confusion just around definition of terms. It may also serve as a useful guide to analysts new to the field tasked with IFRS 9 compliance, the international loss accounting rules, and credit risk modeling in general.
Each chapter of this book is a term that one might encounter when discussing creating lifetime loss forecasting models for CECL or IFRS 9. Not every term is a model, and some models listed are being mentioned only to explain why they are not likely to be used for loss forecasting. The CECL guidelines and subsequent FAQs have given examples of modeling techniques. Some people new to loss forecasting have assumed that those are all the available or applicable methods. This book is meant in
part to dispel that misconception.
The definitions and descriptions provided here are meant to provide an intuitive understanding across a range of modeling techniques. Mathematical derivations are kept to a minimum. The references listed will provide all the necessary details for an eager analyst.
Which CECL model should we use? 23 Jul 2018
If you're a top 20 bank, this will almost certainly be a modified version of your CCAR model. For everyone else, we tested the alternatives.
This is an expansion of our previously released studies. In a sincere effort to assist small lenders in implementing CECL, several "spreadsheet methods" have been proposed.